The midterm elections have opened a path toward the end of Trumpism in America, as voters increasingly place their economic interests above slogans and reject costly military and economic gambles.
Has America begun to enter the post-Trump era? This question came sharply into focus immediately after the Democratic Party was declared the winner of majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, following a fiercely contested election campaign. The economic consequences of the war were the most significant factor behind results that amounted to a punishment by American voters of President Donald Trump's administration for dragging the United States into a war with Iran without clear objectives. The outcome was a double defeat, with Republicans losing control of both chambers of Congress as well as state governorships, a result that had been anticipated by most opinion polls.
The midterm elections can therefore be regarded as a popular referendum on Trump's policies, particularly the war, rising prices and tariffs, reflecting Americans' rejection of the consequences of his administration's decisions. These results will constrain the president in several areas, most notably the conduct of war, budget allocations, and even the appointment of ambassadors and judges. In effect, Trump will become a lame-duck president facing a House and Senate equipped with highly influential constitutional and oversight powers, meaning that the White House will no longer be able to advance its agenda without securing the support of majorities in both chambers. This points to the beginning of an institutional confrontation between Congress and the White House.
History suggests that presidents who lose their congressional majorities in midterm elections tend to concentrate on foreign policy during the final two years of their terms. This is precisely the course Trump is likely to pursue in order to avoid direct confrontation with the Democrats.
Another dimension concerns the next presidential election, whose contours have already begun to emerge from the midterm results, as Democrats captured traditionally Republican states on the one hand and battleground states on the other. This means that whoever becomes the Republican presidential nominee in the next election will face considerable difficulties in recovering what the party has lost as a consequence of Trump's policies, whether domestically through immigration laws, taxation and rising prices, or internationally through a foreign policy that drew the United States into war and disputes with its traditional allies in Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
As for the Middle East, several scenarios are likely to emerge, most notably a reduced likelihood of military escalation, particularly because such escalation requires funding, an authority that rests with Congress rather than the president alone.
This leads to the conclusion that the Trump administration will find itself engaged in a domestic legal and constitutional battle with Congress, particularly over government spending and against the backdrop of potential corruption cases that could be investigated. This situation could, in itself, revive the prospect of impeaching the president, although removing him from office would require a two-thirds majority in the Senate, a threshold that would be difficult to reach. Nevertheless, the initiation of such proceedings, should they materialize, would itself amount to a political reckoning with the Trump era.
Ultimately, the midterm election results have substantially paved the way for the end of Trumpism in America, particularly as American voters appear increasingly unwilling to be swayed by political slogans and have instead adopted a distinctly pragmatic approach, placing their own interests at the forefront as citizens who have suffered from Trump's military and economic gambles.
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