OPEC Will Boost Oil Output—But Don't Expect Lower Prices at the Pump

Although more supplies will be coming to market, the economic impact of this decision will depend on issues of timing, royal rapprochement, and new COVID surges.

The US needs Europe to end the 'forever wars' in the Middle East

The election and other factors provide an opportunity to design a humbler but smarter transatlantic approach to the Middle East.

The Rise of Chinese AI in the Gulf: A Renewal of China’s ‘Serbia Model’

Already a global leader in 5G infrastructure, China is investing heavily in a broader range of advanced technologies and seeking to introduce them globally as a means of achieving even...

Washington Confuses Tactics with Strategy: The Perils of Shuttering the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad

In threatening the closure, the U.S. administration is undermining the reform-minded Iraqi prime minister’s efforts against Iran-backed militias and risking Baghdad’s relationship with Washington.

Were Iran and the United States Really ‘On the Brink’? Observations on Gray Zone Conflict

Tehran’s entire modus operandi is designed to pressure Washington and its allies but avoid all-out conflict, and distorting this reality so close to a U.S. election will only hinder an effective policy response.

Emir’s Death Leaves Kuwait Vulnerable to Gulf Rivals

From family competition and parliamentary rumblings to potential friction with various neighbors, the oil-rich U.S. ally may face a challenging transition.

Pushing Back on Iraqi Militias: Weighing U.S. Options

Although halting the escalation of militia attacks on American personnel is crucial, simply evacuating the Baghdad embassy and downscaling the bilateral relationship would allow Iran to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Kadhimi’s Rolling Reshuffle (Part 2): Protecting Iraq’s Economic Institutions and Borders

As technocrats increasingly fill key government roles, U.S. officials need to help Baghdad withstand the inevitable counterpunch from political and militia factions used to dictating such appointments.

Kadhimi’s Rolling Reshuffle (Part 1): Military Command Changes

To strengthen Iraq’s capacity for resisting militia and foreign influence, Washington should keep supporting the campaign to remake the military one commander at a time.

From the ‘Republic of Fear’ to the Militias’ Republic of Terror

The irony seems strange today given that Makiya’s student who dreamed of a state of freedom now presides over the government and has in fact inherited the state...

Saudi-Pakistan Rift Develops Over India

On August 17, Pakistani army chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa visited Saudi Arabia to meet with Deputy Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, younger brother to the

Navigating a Growing Chinese Influence in Iraqi Kurdistan

The former prime ministers statement also shows how Asia has changed from a geographical term into a political and civilizational concept.

Divisions in Iraqi Kurdistan Are Costing the United States a Reliable Partner

If Kurdish leaders do not find a way to get beyond petty squabbles and into governing, they will be unable to pull the KRI out of its current nosedive or put their relationship with Washington on more solid ground.

When China Met Iran

A growing partnership between America’s main Middle East adversary and Asia’s rising superpower bears careful watching in Washington.

Shifting Sands in the House of Saud with a King’s Declining Health

King Salman may not be on his deathbed, but his son is renowned for not wanting to waste an opportunity.

East Mediterranean Energy Rivalries Face Harsh Economic Realities

Erdogan to Make Hagia Sophia a Mosque Again, But Will It Help Him?

Turkeys president seems focused on cementing his legacy and boosting his popularity with voters, but the move is more likely to damage the countrys international brand.

On the Murder of Husham al-Hashemi

Husham left behind a wife and four young children, along with many friends across the political spectrum and across the world. I had known him for about six years. Husham was a bit of an enigma at first: an Iraqi security analyst with contacts...

Testing Iraq’s Ability to Crack Down on Anti-U.S. Terrorism

After Kataib Hezbollah was caught red-handed prepping new rocket strikes, justice needs to be served, and Iraqs government needs to be better secured.

Will Crashing Oil Prices Put American Energy in Its Coffin?

The fundamental reason is that the coronavirus pandemic has suddenly reduced demand by around 30 percent because we are not driving cars, not going to work, not manufacturing things in most factories, here and in much of the world.

Will the OPEC Agreement Work and, If So, How Long Will It Last?

The market appears to doubt that the deal will suffice, and royal family dynamics could push the oil crisis into further rounds.

Iraq Goes from Zurfi to Kadhimi: U.S. Policy Implications

If Kadhimis nomination goes through, it would be good news for Iraq, but Washingtons troubled relationship with Baghdad still needs a radical strategic reset.

Post-uprising Iraq: New Players and New Realities

The past several days have witnessed a great deal of political movement in Iraq as a result of the countrys remarkable current situation. As usual, the actions of Iraq

Don’t Count Out U.S. Oil Production as a Market-Shaper

Total U.S. production from all sources will remain the worlds largest no matter how low prices go, leaving Washington (and Texas) with considerable room to help domestic companies and press Riyadh and Moscow on stabilizing prices.